Could Electric Vehicles Reduce Mobility?

EVs have come under intense scrutiny and criticism recently due to their re-emergence in the market. Most of the topics that have been brought up are old issues that were present in the previous false dawns of EVs. These concerns can be broadly placed into two categories:

1.       Will an EV be able to do the job of a conventional vehicle?

2.       Will an EV be able to reduce the problems of environmental impact and energy security related to personal vehicle transport?

The second category can be answered by relating to the fuel source used to power EVs and the materials and techniques used to build them. If the fuel used to generate the electricity for EVs is of similar carbon intensity the pollution is simply being exported and centralised from multiple sources on roads to rural power plants. Now this may not be an entire failure as centralisation of emissions away from urban centres does have benefits for human health. Energy security is dependent on where the fuel is sourced from and if this source is stable in both overall production and also price level.

The first category relates almost entirely to the practical functionality of an EV such as luggage capacity, performance, safety and range.  Range is a reoccurring theme for EVs and technological innovation has taken place in an attempt to overcome range anxiety. Battery technology is enjoying heavy investment levels and range extending EVs (that incorporate small ICEs to recharge the battery) could be of significant potential.

The Year of the EV – Are we getting ahead of ourselves?

2011 seems to be the year pure EVs will turn from myth into reality with the introduction of the Nissan Leaf, Citroen C-Zero and Peugeot iOn into the mass automotive market. Other manufacturers will be rolling out their EV offerings soon after with the Volkswagen e-motion, Renault Fluence and Ford Focus EV expected in 2012. Mild and Plug-in Hybrids will also be introduced with the Prius Plug-in version highly anticipated. It can be easy to view this year and the next as the years that the EV finally hit the big time but our previous article (looking at previous False Dawns) will hopefully temper some of this enthusiasm. There is still a long road ahead if EVs are to become firmly established in the market and there is an argument that we might be looking too far into the future.

I sincerely hope the long term future of the personal vehicle is electric however, this most certainly is a long term ambition and we shouldn’t blind ourselves to any short and medium term options of addressing the associated problems with conventional vehicles. Pure EVs will have an important role to play between 2025 and 2050 but before then other technologies should not be forgotten. Mild hybrids are likely to become much more integrated into the market employing energy recovery systems and plug-in hybrids could see their desirability increase dependent on the price of oil over the next decade.

With Electric Vehicles, Experience Matters

The first vehicle trials with EVs held in the UK have produced their initial results regarding user impressions of the vehicles. Not surprisingly, the users tend to have sceptical views when starting the trail but as they become better acquainted with operating the vehicles to meet their mobility needs these views tend to become more positive. This affect is not solely limited to EVs but has been demonstrated with a number of new technology introductions. Experience and information seem to be the best way to overcome fears and anxiety concerning new technologies with the former usually more effective than the latter.

So if drivers need to have experience with EVs before they will tend to view them in a positive light and consider them for their next vehicle purchase, the question is how do we provide this experience? There are a number of ways that can be considered. Firstly, with improvements in computer and virtual reality technology the application of EV simulators is a real possibility. These would allow drivers to go for a virtual journey in an EV and get an impression of how these vehicles operate. This method does have the limitation that no matter how realistic the simulation is the user will always know that it is not genuine and so will question is validity. However, a simulator may prove to be a cheap option allowing a large number of drivers to experience an EV journeys from a central location.

The False Dawns of LEVs – A brief discussion of previous LEV failures

There is a rather pessimistic saying that history is bound to repeat itself which is a modification of George Santayana’s comment “those who cannot remember their past are condemned to repeat it”. This tautology has been adapted to serve a myriad of different purposes ranging from financial planning to military strategy. I for one think that it is a sound rule to keep in mind and it is something the current generation of people and companies working in the EV market should consider.

When the personal automobile first hit the roads in the early twentieth century the market was initially dominated by EVs. They were by far technically superior to their ICE compatriots but this superiority was quickly eroded by advancements in ICE engineering and also in its associated fuel, petroleum. It wasn’t long until pretty much every vehicle on the roads was powered by an ICE and this was how the market remained for the next 70 years. Things would change in the early 1980s with the automotive industry and industrialised economies having to take account of an external threat. The Oil Crisis’ of 1973 and 1980 showed how dependent oil importing industrialised nations were on a steady inflow of petroleum into their economies. When these supplies were put in danger oil prices rose dramatically with fuel shortages occurring across the globe.

LEVs – The Possibility of a Rebound Effect

Efficiency is one of those buzz words that has become embedded in professional circles with managers consistently stressing the need to continually increase it. In its simplest form, efficiency is an assessment of the level of output associated with a given level of input. By increasing efficiency, you are increasing the level of output given the same level of input. This seems like a win-win situation both for managers and systems analysts.

In energy terms, national statistics monitor the level of energy input required into the economic system of a country to generate a designated quantity of output (usually USD$). This statistic has decreased significantly over the last century as our industrialized economy became much more energy efficient. In relation to passenger vehicles, the internal combustion engine has undergone a similar transition with more energy being generated from a single input of fuel driven by technological advancement. It is not surprising that this improvement in energy efficiency has not all went into increasing vehicle range. Instead, vehicles have become more powerful, heavier and now incorporate more consumer electricals. Similarly, as our vehicles have become more energy efficient we have chosen to increase their utilization with substantial increases in vehicle miles driven.

The Government may want LEVs to Substitute for Conventional Vehicles but don’t be Surprised if they act as Compliments.

Over the past 60 years in the UK we have witness a dramatic increase in the vehicle miles driven of passenger vehicles by around 20 times. This has been due to a combination of an increasing national vehicle fleet with these vehicles being driven much further distances. 60 years ago it was uncommon for a household to have a single car whereas now multi car households are the norm. These trends are set to continue in the future with both the quantity of vehicles on the roads, the number of multi car households and the distances driven by these vehicles set to increase towards 2025.

If the UK Government desires to be able to meet the commitments it set out in the Climate Change Bill (cutting CO2 equivalent by 80% by 2050 with 4 year Climate Budgets) it must decouple this estimated growth from CO2 emissions. Not only that, it must also reverse this relationship so that CO2 reduces even whilst we are buying more cars and driving them further.

The Search for Stability

It wasn’t too long ago that Gordon Brown, the then Chancellor of the Exchequer, claimed to have banished boom and bust economic business cycles leading to an environment of stable financial prosperity. What a difference a few years can make, now instead of enjoying unrivalled stability we are have to cope with a much more uncertain world where, if short term prospects seem shaky, medium and long term predictions are almost worthless. This world of uncertainty goes all the way up from the micro household level, where individuals are worried about their jobs and mortgage payments, to the macro government and international levels where fiscal restructuring and sovereign debt are major topics of debate.

Uncertainty and instability are not always bad things. Many financiers have made large profits from being able to accurately plot the fall of companies, betting on stock price decreases. It also generates a need for more advanced prediction and estimation techniques stimulating academic and professional innovation. Some companies specialize in “bad times” services such as insolvency firms, debt restructuring agencies and bankruptcy accountants. Unfortunately, for the vehicle market and most notably LEVs, uncertainty is not desired and can lead to a great deal of distress.