The Year of the EV – Are we getting ahead of ourselves?

2011 seems to be the year pure EVs will turn from myth into reality with the introduction of the Nissan Leaf, Citroen C-Zero and Peugeot iOn into the mass automotive market. Other manufacturers will be rolling out their EV offerings soon after with the Volkswagen e-motion, Renault Fluence and Ford Focus EV expected in 2012. Mild and Plug-in Hybrids will also be introduced with the Prius Plug-in version highly anticipated. It can be easy to view this year and the next as the years that the EV finally hit the big time but our previous article (looking at previous False Dawns) will hopefully temper some of this enthusiasm. There is still a long road ahead if EVs are to become firmly established in the market and there is an argument that we might be looking too far into the future.

I sincerely hope the long term future of the personal vehicle is electric however, this most certainly is a long term ambition and we shouldn’t blind ourselves to any short and medium term options of addressing the associated problems with conventional vehicles. Pure EVs will have an important role to play between 2025 and 2050 but before then other technologies should not be forgotten. Mild hybrids are likely to become much more integrated into the market employing energy recovery systems and plug-in hybrids could see their desirability increase dependent on the price of oil over the next decade.

Arguably the most important vehicles over the next 10 to 20 years in reducing the carbon intensity and fuel use of personal vehicles are earmarked “eco-models”. These vehicles employ an ICE which has significantly lower CO2g/km emissions levels due to incorporating advanced engineering technologies. Turbo charging and downsizing of engines along with fuel injection can increase the fuel efficiency levels of the engine. These engine improvements can be linked with low resistance tyres, a more aerodynamic frame and lighter materials meaning that eco-models can currently hit the 100gCO2/km level which isn’t far off BEV/PHEV territory. The introduction of driver information augmentations such as gear shift indicators and up-to-date travel data showing optimal routes could also have large benefits.

Eco-Models are unlikely to be to everyone’s taste just like EVs in their current forms will not be attractive to many consumers. The hope is that eco-models will have a wider pull and thus play a more prominent role in decarbonising the personal vehicle sector over the next decade. Hopefully by this stage the true coming of EVs will be upon us and the baton can be firmly changed over from petroleum to electricity as the personal vehicle fuel source.