LEVs – The Possibility of a Rebound Effect

Efficiency is one of those buzz words that has become embedded in professional circles with managers consistently stressing the need to continually increase it. In its simplest form, efficiency is an assessment of the level of output associated with a given level of input. By increasing efficiency, you are increasing the level of output given the same level of input. This seems like a win-win situation both for managers and systems analysts.

In energy terms, national statistics monitor the level of energy input required into the economic system of a country to generate a designated quantity of output (usually USD$). This statistic has decreased significantly over the last century as our industrialized economy became much more energy efficient. In relation to passenger vehicles, the internal combustion engine has undergone a similar transition with more energy being generated from a single input of fuel driven by technological advancement. It is not surprising that this improvement in energy efficiency has not all went into increasing vehicle range. Instead, vehicles have become more powerful, heavier and now incorporate more consumer electricals. Similarly, as our vehicles have become more energy efficient we have chosen to increase their utilization with substantial increases in vehicle miles driven.

The introduction of LEVs into the market is an attempt to address some of the problems associated with our increased desire of and reliance on personal vehicle transport. BEVs will provide a large leap in energy efficiency (on a tank to wheel basis) as the fuel (electricity) does not need to be converted to energy internally but instead can be directly fed into the powertrain. It is hoped that the introduction of BEVs will not significantly affect user’s transport behaviour and BEV development is being focused on ensuring they can be used in an almost identical fashion to conventional vehicles. What could potentially happen and negate the benefits of LEVs is that they are instead driven further. This rebound effect could be the result of the vehicle efficiency improvement encouraging users to travel more due to the reduced operating costs. Likewise, a user may decide to use their LEV more frequently because of its low emissions nature relieving their conscious.

In an ideal situation, the introduction of LEVs into the market will either have little impact on the distance users operate their vehicle or perhaps encourage users to decrease their vehicle miles driven. Having looked at the previous history in the vehicle market and wider economy this hope seems somewhat thin. Efficiency improvements have continuously been used the drive increased output from a system in our economy’s seemingly unquenchable thirst for increased growth. I see no reason for things to be different with the introduction of LEVs. Of course there will be the discussion relating to behavioural change and trying to encourage people to switch their modes of transport but I would be highly surprised if the introduction of LEVs encouraged users to drive less rather than more.