The Government may want LEVs to Substitute for Conventional Vehicles but don’t be Surprised if they act as Compliments.

Over the past 60 years in the UK we have witness a dramatic increase in the vehicle miles driven of passenger vehicles by around 20 times. This has been due to a combination of an increasing national vehicle fleet with these vehicles being driven much further distances. 60 years ago it was uncommon for a household to have a single car whereas now multi car households are the norm. These trends are set to continue in the future with both the quantity of vehicles on the roads, the number of multi car households and the distances driven by these vehicles set to increase towards 2025.

If the UK Government desires to be able to meet the commitments it set out in the Climate Change Bill (cutting CO2 equivalent by 80% by 2050 with 4 year Climate Budgets) it must decouple this estimated growth from CO2 emissions. Not only that, it must also reverse this relationship so that CO2 reduces even whilst we are buying more cars and driving them further.

The most energy efficient LEVs have the potential to reduce CO2 emissions by about 40% compared to an average new vehicle bought in the UK market. We’ve already highlighted the barriers restricting wide scale uptake of LEVs such as their limited range and long recharge times. This creates an environment where the probability of an individual choosing to either substitute their current car for an LEV or choose an LEV over an average conventional vehicle when buying a new car unlikely. Indeed, it is only likely that niche consumers who will not be limited by the restrictions of owning an LEV and consider their unique attributes to be a benefit who are likely to uptake an LEV for their primary vehicle.

As with most technological transitions, it is unlikely that there is going to be a sudden market shift away from conventional vehicles towards LEVs. Rather, the switchover is likely to take somewhere between 15-25 years with multiple crossover stages. This process will provide an opportunity for LEVs to establish themselves in the market in a way that may not initially seem obvious. With the proportion of multi vehicle households set to increase, households may consider a LEV as their secondary car. These secondary cars tend to be used for shorter journeys such as shopping and social visits and are smaller than the primary car. In this sense, their mobility requirements may better suit the unique aspects of some LEVs.

If LEVs are initially seen as a complement to conventional vehicles and replace a household’s secondary car, this will be an important step in penetrating the automotive market. Getting these vehicles on the roads is an absolute necessity. People need to see these vehicles operating on the street to allow them to form attitudes towards them. Currently, they seem almost mythical with a large quantity of public exposure in the media yet a severe lack of practical experience.

Once LEVs have established themselves in the secondary vehicle market they can use this as a springboard into the primary market. A solid secondary market position will allow automotive manufacturers to allocate more resources to developing the LEV technology and utilise economies of scale to drive down production costs. These first generation secondary car LEVs will also provide valuable feedback to manufacturers and the Government concerning consumer reaction to and use of LEVs. Hopefully these factors will assist in the development of second generation LEVs that have a greater potential to substitute for a household’s primary vehicle. If we are to meet the targets that we have set for ourselves, this will be an absolute requirement of any carbon reduction strategy.