The False Dawns of LEVs – A brief discussion of previous LEV failures

There is a rather pessimistic saying that history is bound to repeat itself which is a modification of George Santayana’s comment “those who cannot remember their past are condemned to repeat it”. This tautology has been adapted to serve a myriad of different purposes ranging from financial planning to military strategy. I for one think that it is a sound rule to keep in mind and it is something the current generation of people and companies working in the EV market should consider.

When the personal automobile first hit the roads in the early twentieth century the market was initially dominated by EVs. They were by far technically superior to their ICE compatriots but this superiority was quickly eroded by advancements in ICE engineering and also in its associated fuel, petroleum. It wasn’t long until pretty much every vehicle on the roads was powered by an ICE and this was how the market remained for the next 70 years. Things would change in the early 1980s with the automotive industry and industrialised economies having to take account of an external threat. The Oil Crisis’ of 1973 and 1980 showed how dependent oil importing industrialised nations were on a steady inflow of petroleum into their economies. When these supplies were put in danger oil prices rose dramatically with fuel shortages occurring across the globe.

These Oil Crisis’ combined with a desire to reduce local and national pollution emissions in the industrialised world meant that Governments began considering the possibility of diversifying the transport and energy sectors away from petroleum based fuels. A wide variety of alternative fuels and technologies underwent R&D including hydrogen, biofuels and alternative battery types. However, commitment to this policy stream started to diminish in the mid to late 1980s due to 2 primary reasons. Firstly, the automotive manufacturers began to view this R&D expenditure as meaningless and started to lobby in order to have eliminated. Secondly, geopolitical dealings had managed to secure a much more stable oil supply leading to a less volatile energy environment. These two factors led to investment and research in alternative powertrain technology and fuels to be curtailed.

In the 1990s another major world event would spark the interest in these technologies and fuels back into life. The Iraqi Government led by Saddam Hussein was destabilizing the Middle East with its conflict with neighbouring Kuwait and the ongoing tension with the Kurdish population. This tension brought back home the knowledge that oil was such a fundamental commodity to the industrialized world economy. R&D was once again brought online into alternative powertrain technologies and fuels in an attempt to break this dependence. However, like the first coming of interest in this area, commitment diminished as a result of the military intervention by the US Government who entered the region and brokered a peace deal. Once again R&D was throttled back and the dust covers were put onto the prototypes.

We are currently going through the 3^rd coming of alterative powertrain technologies and fuels. Like the first two, the interest is largely generated by concerns about the environment, oil stability and oil price. Commitment seems to be much greater this time and, instead of diminishing, appears to be growing stronger. National Governments have committed themselves to firm pollution reduction targets and have invested a large quantity of capital into LEV technology R&D. It could be easy to conclude that this is going to be the time when LEV technology finally brakes through into the mainstream automotive market but we’re not quite there yet. Spanners could still be thrown into the engines. I believe one of the shortcomings of the previous attempts to install LEVs into the market was a lack of understanding concerning the automotive consumer. A great deal of energy was going into developing the technology but not enough into if users would desire it. I hope we’ve got it right this time and consumers appear to be playing a more important role but their acceptance and incorporation of this transition is a fundamental component of any future success.