If there is one universal truth that holds constant throughout the universe it is that the future will not be the same as the past. Change will happen and, as the previous post discusses, the ability to predict change is a highly desirable commodity. The market for personal vehicles currently stands at a crossroads with multiple pathways leading forward. The current overriding market model is one of personal ownership of a passenger vehicle that is bought from an automotive manufacturer and refuelled by petroleum firms. There is potential that this model will continue into the future but a number of rivals have emerged and are vying for position.
If Electric Vehicles are to be the future of personal mobility then a number of barriers relating to their associated battery packs will have to be overcome. Firstly, energy density needs to increase so that the range of these vehicles can be extended to provide a realistic challenge to conventional cars. Secondly, they will have to become cheaper so that they are price competitive with conventional cars. Is there not another option? Renault have went into business with Better Place to offer their EV range to consumers where the battery is not sold with the car but instead leased from Better Place. Better Place also operate a network of battery swap stations where an EV’s depleted battery is quickly removed by automated machinery and replaced with a fully charged battery thus eliminating range anxiety. This will substantially reduce the purchase price of an EV but tie the driver into a (what currently looks like) expensive leasing agreement. I’ve seen figures stating a £300 monthly leasing cost quoted for unlimited swaps but this does strike me on the expensive side. Perhaps, if more firms enter this market, competition and innovation will drive down costs making this pathways seem more attractive but what would happen to the resale market, would buyers want to purchase a second hand car that didn’t have a battery? A great many cars are now sold under finance agreements so the acceptance for monthly payments is already well established in the market.
Another option that has been around for a while but appears to be finding its second wind is car sharing. Mostly applicable in urban centres where the desired trips are usually short and are within the confines of a designated area (allowing for vehicles to be easily returned to base), car sharing allows individuals to book time (usually sold in hour units) of a vehicle. Most privately owned vehicles are inactive over 90% of the time meaning a well scheduled car sharing scheme can help greatly increase the efficiency of these resources. These schemes can be run by new startup companies specialising in this service, established automotive firms diversifying into this niche, community initiatives, local councils or even by private individuals selling time of their own cars. Problems do exist such as what happens in an emergency when a person needs access to a vehicle without booking it? Also people tend to derive a great deal of benefit from owning a car and feel it is a part of their personality. It will be difficult to convince these people to break this relationship and start thinking about a vehicle in a purely functional dimension.
Finally, there is the option of getting rid of cars all together and the success of the London Bike Hire scheme (and others around the World) should show us that other and completely different models for personal mobility may exist that would prove attractive to the general populace. In my opinion, I would find it difficult to envisage a World where cars were not the primary mode of personal transit and so think the previous 3 models are more likely. It is perhaps unlikely that any one of them will rise to absolute dominance and I expect there to be a broadening of the market where private vehicle ownership decreases with the leasing and rental options increasing.
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