Baby Steps or Great Leap Forward?

It seems more and more likely that Electric Vehicles are to be the future of personal automotive transport. They offer distinct advantages over Hydrogen, biofuel, CNG and LPG vehicles. The question now on everyone’s lips is how quick will the transition be? Our previous article discussed the inherent limitations in attempting to predict future markets but I want to expand on a point that wasn’t well laid out and that is the issue of consumer acceptance.

People in general are quite adverse to sudden and dramatic change in their consumption patterns. Introducing a concept, idea or product that is radically different from the conventional norm runs the risk of being greeted with hesitation and perhaps resistance. Moving from conventional internal combustion engine vehicles straight to electric vehicles will be a substantial change and require drivers to reconsider in many ways how they drive a car. This scenario is loaded with pitfalls and therefore it is unlikely there will be a mass shift from ICE to EV in consumer preferences. Indeed, it most likely would be undesirable all-round for this to be the case as EVs will undoubtedly have some teething problems that will need to be addressed.

If there is little chance of their being a great leap forward then how can the transition be outlined? It is more likely there will be a stepped change where EV technology is introduced gradually into the market allowing consumers to become acquainted with it and hopefully reduce their aversion towards it. This is where mild, full and plug-in Hybrids can play a prominent role and it is likely that these vehicles will form the bridge between ICE and pure EV.

How long will this transition take? The lifespan of a conventional vehicle has been gradually increasing over the past few decades due to improvements in manufacturing quality and after sales servicing. Cars are being used now well after their 10^th years of service with engines being good for 200 000 miles or more. This means the replacement time of the national vehicle fleet is also increasing. If every car sold from today onwards was an EV the UK national vehicle fleet would be unlikely to reach 90% electric penetration until 2025. With EVs only predicted to amount to 5% of the market by 2015 (at best) it could be substantially longer than this. Mild hybrids have the potential to penetrate the market over the coming 5 years as they require little extra cost and no alteration in driving behaviour. It is perhaps best to thinking about this transition in vehicle generations progressing from mild hybrid to full then plug-in and finally pure EV. It may seem that going through these multiple steps is a tad bit inefficient but it gives time for the technology to mature and consumers to become acquainted with the concept but aren’t we forgetting something?

In an ideal world it would be great if we could take as long as we wished to get the technology and consumer acceptance just right before the big push for pure EVs came along. This does not accurately portray the world we find ourselves in where the prospects of climate change and peak oil are approaching quickly. Considering ways we can speed up this transition are strategies that are being considering by most developed world Governments that have committed themselves to deep carbon emission reductions. Letting the market (and by extension, consumers) entirely dictate the speed of transition may prolong the period to an extent that the overriding objectives of reducing environmental intensity and energy insecurity of passenger vehicle transport are missed. Whilst we might like to be able to ease the transition as much as possible there will always be an argument that a solid push at the right time and in the right place may well speed up the transition enough to make these objectives achievable but not overextending ourselves.