The Government may want LEVs to Substitute for Conventional Vehicles but don’t be Surprised if they act as Compliments.

Over the past 60 years in the UK we have witness a dramatic increase in the vehicle miles driven of passenger vehicles by around 20 times. This has been due to a combination of an increasing national vehicle fleet with these vehicles being driven much further distances. 60 years ago it was uncommon for a household to have a single car whereas now multi car households are the norm. These trends are set to continue in the future with both the quantity of vehicles on the roads, the number of multi car households and the distances driven by these vehicles set to increase towards 2025.

If the UK Government desires to be able to meet the commitments it set out in the Climate Change Bill (cutting CO2 equivalent by 80% by 2050 with 4 year Climate Budgets) it must decouple this estimated growth from CO2 emissions. Not only that, it must also reverse this relationship so that CO2 reduces even whilst we are buying more cars and driving them further.

The Search for Stability

It wasn’t too long ago that Gordon Brown, the then Chancellor of the Exchequer, claimed to have banished boom and bust economic business cycles leading to an environment of stable financial prosperity. What a difference a few years can make, now instead of enjoying unrivalled stability we are have to cope with a much more uncertain world where, if short term prospects seem shaky, medium and long term predictions are almost worthless. This world of uncertainty goes all the way up from the micro household level, where individuals are worried about their jobs and mortgage payments, to the macro government and international levels where fiscal restructuring and sovereign debt are major topics of debate.

Uncertainty and instability are not always bad things. Many financiers have made large profits from being able to accurately plot the fall of companies, betting on stock price decreases. It also generates a need for more advanced prediction and estimation techniques stimulating academic and professional innovation. Some companies specialize in “bad times” services such as insolvency firms, debt restructuring agencies and bankruptcy accountants. Unfortunately, for the vehicle market and most notably LEVs, uncertainty is not desired and can lead to a great deal of distress.

Marginal Abatement Costs of LEVs: Is it an open and closed case?

It seemed to me that, leading up to the worldwide economic recession, climate change was building up to a critical mass of public exposure and concern. A large and increasing quantity of airtime and newspaper coverage was helping propel this topic into the mainstream of public attention. Perhaps, when the good times were rolling, we had the luxury of caring about things above and beyond the basic human needs of providing food and shelter for our families. It has been proven empirically that as a Nations Gross Domestic Product increases past a certain point, so too does a desire to live in a clean and unpolluted environment (see Environmental Kuznets Curve).

Since 2008, with the recession in full swing, the debate regarding Climate Change took a back seat to “more important”(read more short term) fundamental issues. Public concern about the environment fell off dramatically leading to lower levels of media and political attention. Politicians in developed nations were all for installing ambitious targets and legislation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions when the times were good and capital was plentiful. Now that Sovereign Debt is a major issue in most Western economies, politicians are being asked to quickly reduce their nation’s budget deficits leading to some tough decisions that are needed. In the UK, some departments are facing 40% funding decreases and are being asked to do more with less. Added to this, the developed economies have not nearly recovered as fast as those in emerging markets leading to a very weak and fragile recovery. Asking companies to invest more money into cleaner technologies and reduce their carbon footprints may have seemed like a good idea before the recession but now are being perceived as potential recovery busters. The last thing the UK Government will want to do is damage the economy’s chances of a speedy recovery so some of these potential climate change orientated measures are coming under greater scrutiny.

What is causing the Recent Vehicle Emission Reductions?

The SMMT (Society for Motor Manufactures and Traders) recently published their first half year figures relating to sustainability indicators. There has been a significant drop in the CO2 emissions figures of new vehicles registered in the last six months, decreasing by 4.5% to 145.2 gCO2/km. This is great news for those of us who want to see a move towards a more sustainable personal transport system. What we must find out now is what the reasons behind this decrease are so that we can ensure that they continue and prosper.

The background environment that motorists have found themselves in over the past few years has undergone some considerable changes. Firstly and perhaps most importantly the worldwide economic recession has put a brake on people’s finances encouraging them to consider large purchasing decisions in greater detail and look to save money wherever possible. The previous trend of the last decade of upsizing vehicles has been somewhat reversed with motorists now thinking about downsizing to enjoy greater levels of fuel efficiency.

New vehicle sales fell off rather dramatically during the start of the recession as households put off large purchases due to the increased uncertainty in the economy. The UK Government introduced a stimulus plan that encouraged households to part ways with old vehicles (over 10 years old since first registration) in exchange for a £2000 reduction in the costs of a new car. This incentive was widely subscribed to generating a substantial decrease in the average emissions level of the UK vehicle car fleet (under the principle that a new car will be significantly more efficient than a 10 year old vehicle). This incentive did not have any vehicle requirements attached allowing households to trade in their old cars for any new vehicle they desired. It was observed that households subscribing to this incentive generally tended to purchase new vehicles that were below the average new vehicle emissions vehicle. This was a unplanned for additional benefit of the UK Car Scrappage Scheme which not only helped prop up the UK’s large automotive manufacturing sector but also moved the new vehicle market in the right direction of lowering CO2 emissions.

Is Peak Oil the End of Liquid Fuels?

Across the world around 90 million barrels of oil are consumed in any one day. The vast majority of this consumption is in the transportation sector powering our planes, trains and cars. World oil reserves have stayed somewhat steady over the last decade however relatively few new “mega fields” have been discovered. The official statistics concerning these reserves are hotly debated with many analysts arguing the figure is actually much lower than what is officially stated. Petroleum politics between OPEC, other major oil producing countries and the world’s largest oil consumers make the picture of current world oil a murky one with a large degree of subterfuge and asymmetrical information.

Peak Oil is a phrase that has recently come into fashion to discuss the situation where oil extraction reaches its absolute limits and potentially starts to decline. What was initially a taboo subject in oil circles has become one of serious debate and concern. The oil industry has progressed from arguing against the entire principle of Peak Oil to stating that it is likely not going to occur for the foreseeable future. Other commentators disagree believing Peak Oil will be upon us imminently. Whatever the case may be, it is important to look into the likely effects of this situation for the automotive industry and discuss likely implications and possible strategies to minimise disruption and exposure.

Low Emissions Vehicles – The Role of Uncertainty

Large multinational corporations spend tens of millions of pounds every year to fund their finance, accounting and auditing departments. The rationale behind this is that by conducting these activities it will put the company into a highly competitive position making it more efficient and informed. Employees in these companies undergo years of training both pre and post University to be able to conduct the complex and difficult activities this profession needs. Automotive manufacturers are no different, employing thousands of accountants and financial analysts.

If there is one thing that these individuals dislike the most it is uncertainty. They work best where cash-flows and interest rates are clearly known or can be determined with a high probability. Uncertainly adds both an element of frustration to these financial statisticians and also a level of risk to the company. Undoubtedly financial services have become better at taking account of uncertainty and working it into their analysis but this can only occur when the variable that is uncertain can be identified, investigated and quantified. In some situations it is not the known unknowns that we have to worry about, it’s the unknown unknowns.

Where are the Best Locations for Charge Points?

What comes first, the chicken or the egg? This is a question often posed to young children to get them thinking about the sequencing of events and the concept of life in general. A similar question currently doing the rounds in the automotive and transport world is do we need recharge infrastructure before individuals will consider a Plug-In Vehicle from their next car choice? Certainly this dilemma has already come up in the past such as do we need roads before people will buy cars? Clearly this situation is not as black and white as it seems at first glance, we had roads, of a sort, before cars were invented. These roads simply had to be improved and expanded in order to meet the growing mobility requirements of an affluent car owning society. Similarly, we already have a well developed refuelling infrastructure for conventional cars, surely we could just modify these refuel stations to allow for Plug-In vehicles to be recharged there? This is definitely an avenue that is being investigated however one of the selling points of Plug-In vehicles is the opportunity to get away from the undesirable (in some individual’s views) refuelling stations so other possibilities must be considered.

The Technology Strategy Board has allocated a significant amount of funding to its Plugged-In-Places scheme. This scheme aims to roll out electric vehicle charging points in urban areas to facilitate the transition to Plug-In vehicles. Thousands of points have already been installed and many more are earmarked for fitting. This scheme is both important from a financial and also policy angle. With the fragile recovery still not fully embedded in the UK economy, the Government cannot afford to be seen wasting tax payer’s money. The Government has also committed itself to pursuing a low carbon pathway in future economic growth and is keen to realign the economy with green business opportunities. The success of this scheme will be critical to the destiny of Plug-In vehicles in the UK and could herald the expansion from niche market application to mainstream consumer product.

The Unusual Suspects

When a new product enters the market it is likely to follow the well establish diffusion curve whereby initial demand is low but increases quickly till the market reaches maturity and eventually decline. The role that early adopters have in the fortunes of any new product introduction cannot be underestimated. These trend setters and opinion leaders are the ones to get the first practical experience with a product and the results of these experiences will be related to friends, family, colleagues and the wider public by both word of mouth and other forms of mass media. With the development of the internet early adopters can now spread their reviews across the entire world with blogs and video reviews becoming ever more common.

With these points in mind, making sure early adopters are well looked after is a key role for any firm introducing a new product. Actively trying to identify early adopters will be a critical component of pre introduction market research. This situation is no different in the case of LEVs and automotive manufactures should already be sourcing information on this important market segment. One of the crucial questions that should form the basis of this market research is what do we expect these early adopters to “look like”? In the following article we set out our views on the socioeconomic characteristics and demographics of potential early adopters in this market.

Scenarios for Consumer Rejection of LEVs

Whenever a new technology or product innovation enters the market the level of consumer acceptability will be a crucial factor in determining how successful it will be. It is quiet common to hear stories of success by budding entrepreneurs who entered the market with nothing but a good idea and a lot of determination and ended up making it big. Stories on product and technology failure are much less common with people and firms less keen to comment on their inability to succeed in making their new product or technology triumphant. This part of the product lifecycle is often overlooked and companies and individuals do not investigating these aspects to a high degree. Indeed it can be this lack of assessment that leads to a new product or technology not being widely accepted by consumers.

In relation to the introduction of LEVs into the automotive market it is important for manufacturers to investigate what are the likely hindrances to consumer acceptance. These rejection scenarios happen when consumers appraise a new vehicle for its suitability according to a set performance criteria and deem the product unsatisfactory. These scenarios will happen throughout the purchasing process and will entail both absolute appraisals where vehicles are required to pass specific levels of acceptability and also relative appraisals where multiple vehicles are compared simultaneously against a set criterion.

What Tricks do we have up our Sleeves?

It has been reported earlier on this blog that the UK government is considering cutting to proposed £5000 incentive grant for BEV/PHEVs in its budget austerity measures. Direct financial incentives can be exceptionally effective at influencing consumer behaviour towards a product but they are not the only option that is available. Indeed, it is often a combination of different incentives that proves to be the most effective. Below we will look into other common forms of consumer incentive that can be considered both by the UK government and car manufacturers to help boost demand for LEVs.

What Does Deepwater Horizon Mean for Low Emission Vehicles?

It is coming up to the two month mark since a huge explosion occurred on the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig that has ended in 11 lives lost and one of the biggest ecological disasters ever seen. The oil has been flowing almost unchecked straight into the Gulf of Mexico with multiple attempts to plug the hole having failed. It seems ever more likely that we will have to wait for relief wells to be completed sometime in mid August before the oil flow can be stopped. Another month of huge quantities of oil (estimates range from 1000 to 25, 000 barrels per day) spilling uncontrolled into a fragile ecosystem is almost unthinkable and not many commentators have dared to mention the possibility of the relief wells not working. Oil has begun to reach the shoreline of the United States with coastal Wildlife Reserves among the casualties.

The public outcry against this situation has been substantial and with the watchful eyes of the world’s Press recording and analysing every individual element nothing has gone unreported. BP’s (who were operating the rig at the time) Chief Executive Tony Hayward has been vilified by the US public and the US President Barack Obama has come under heavy criticism for how he has handled the crisis. The fallout of this tragedy promises to be protracted, you only have to look at how long the Exxon Valdez claims took to clear up (20 years in the courts) with the financial claims taking much longer than the ecosystem recovery to sort out. Some commentators have predicted this could be the downfall of BP and potentially Barack Obama if he doesn’t play his cards very carefully from now on.

Where are EV Trials best Located?

Late last year the Technology Strategy Board announced the 8 winners of its Electric and Ultra Low Emission Vehicle Demonstrator Competition. The lucky winners will receive government funding to trial ULEVs over the next year in locations throughout the UK. The schemes will operate in areas such as London, Birmingham, Glasgow and Newcastle and a quick browse of the list shows that the winners are all located in urban settings.

A question that has been slightly glossed over is whether or not urban locations are the best venues for EV/ULEV trials and eventual roll out. Certainly these areas hold many advantages. Urban dwellers predominately do not have extensive daily range requirements so individuals operating a limited range vehicle (such as an EV) would not have to worry about running out of power. Urban areas have much greater access to the infrastructure necessary to operate these vehicles such as charging points. Collecting the data for the trail will be easier as the users will be situated in a more concentrated area. The early adopters of EV/ULEVs are likely to be urban dwellers themselves who are perceived as being environmentally conscious, socially aspiring and affluent individuals.

Electric Vehicle Incentive Grant to be Scrapped

Some commentators have dubbed the incoming Government coalition between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats as heralding the Age of Austerity for the UK. Spending cuts totalling £6bn have already been announced and it is without doubt that much more will be on the cards if the public deficit and debt burdens are to be reduced. This action is without doubt required, southern Europe has already experienced a sovereign debt crisis last month and financial markets are looking very unnerved. If the UK Government does not take action to curb the deficit (which stands at £156bn this tax year) then Government debt repayments could amount to more than £70bn per year.

People are obviously very keen to find out exactly where the axe will fall. Education and the NHS appear to have their funding ring-fenced with David Cameron’s commitment not to cut essential services. We may have to wait until the emergency budget is announced by George Osborne on June the 22nd before we know exactly the scope of the reductions but speculation is rampant. The £5000 incentive grant earmarked to come online in January next year to assist consumers in purchasing a Electric or Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle has been muted as a likely victim of the new regime.

Dialogues: A New Interface with Corporations

Last week I had the pleasure of attending a Dialogue hosted by Shell concerning Sustainable Transport. This is the first time I have participated in one of these web chats where the audience is given the opportunity to propose questions to a panel of senior Shell representatives covering a range of different sectors in the corporation. The website hosting these Dialogues can be found here and the transcript for the discussion should be available shortly.

I initially had reservations about the usefulness of this form of corporation-public interface. I feared that questions would be either asked in advance so that polished responses could be prepared or that only a handful of selected questions will be responded to. This fear was quickly dispelled when it became apparent that the panel were answering all varieties of questions posed to them. Some of the answers were short and lacking the detail I would have liked to see, but for a question and answer session it certainly exceeded my expectations.

Tesla, An Electric Success?

Automotive manufacturing is huge business producing around 80 million vehicles in 2007. This market has been dominated for the past 20 years by a number of firms that you can count on a single hand. Between them, the top 5 manufactures produce over 33 million vehicles accounting for over 40% of the total market. These companies are backed up by extensive investment and branding divisions that ensure the vehicles they produce are innovative and of high quality whilst consumers are saturated with the brand identity. This leads to a hostile environment for any wouldbe market entrant. Not only must they face a huge level of startup capital required to get an even modest vehicle manufacturing operation online but also the history, prestige and financial capability of the established firms.

With governments around the world deciding to take action on carbon emissions from personal vehicles by introducing strict emissions targets, a gap has been created in the market. Entrepreneurs have been continually commended for their ability to spot market openings and be quick out of the blocks to get their new products to market. It appears that this trend will be continued in the automotive industry as new firms lineup to get their piece of the electric vehicle pie. A window of opportunity exists for start-ups to establish themselves in the new technological market for electric vehicles which is predicted to grow rapidly in sales volume over the next 20 years. However, this window is quickly closing as the big manufacturers start to flex their muscles and turn their attention to the emerging market.

Fiat Attempting to Grasp the Low Hanging Fruit with Advanced ICE

I was browsing the internet the other day when I came across this interesting advertisement by Fiat concerning its new Panda model. Usually these sorts of commercials get unconsciously blocked out but what drew my attention to this particular one was the combination of lower CO2 emissions with lower costs. This concept is referred to in environmental circles as the “Low Hanging Fruit” and is the topic of many bogus green business books often titled “How to Win Big by Going Green” or “Guaranteed Financial Success with the Environment”. Having said that I don’t believe this concept is bogus, just because it is used a little over exuberantly in some books. Win-Win opportunities are always out there for those of us who are smart or fortunate enough to spot them.

As the advert perked my interest I decided to take a closer look at the technical statistics of the Panda to see if there claims are legitimate or are another example of corporate green washing. Fiat has indeed been busy and has revealed numerous Panda concepts aimed at reducing carbon emissions and increasing energy efficiency. I try not to take too much notice regarding concept models unless they’re truly groundbreaking, after all its the road models that will be the ones making the difference. The Active Eco and Dynamic Eco models of the Panda were released in 2009 featuring engines that offer CO2 emissions as low as 119grams per km meaning they’ll qualify for the low £35 road tax band.

£5000 Incentive Grant to be Offered to Electric Vehicle Consumers

The UK Government has recently announced that it plans to put its money where its mouth is concerning the environmental intensity of personal vehicles and will be offering a 25% discount (up to £5000) for consumers purchasing an electric vehicle (or plug-in hybrid) from the start of 2011. This policy complements the investment it is putting into research, development and deployment of low emissions transport technology in an attempt to decarbonise the transport sector. The incentive should come online with the roll out of mass market EVs in the UK such as the Nissan Leaf and also the Renault ZE range which is earmarked for a 2011 launch.

Perhaps one of the biggest concerns consumers have expressed regarding EVs is both their limited range but also the high upfront costs associated with the battery technology. This will be recouped in reduced operating costs throughout the vehicle lifespan but the initial price premium (in comparison with conventional cars) is likely to be a significant barrier to uptake. Better Place has attempted to get around this obstacle by partnering with vehicle manufacturers who will sell the EVs without the battery pack which is instead leased by Better Place to the consumer. This will decrease the upfront costs and incorporate the battery price into operating costs that are heavily discounted by the consumer.

Motorsports as a Source of Automotive Innovation

With the start of the new Formula One season kicking off in Bahrain last weekend the debate on whether the rule changes will have a positive effect on the overall sporting spectacle is buzzing around the paddock and the news rooms. In the 2010/2011 season race cars will not be allowed to be refuelled during the race itself, thus must start the race fully laden with the fuel they will require to complete all the designated laps. This rule is complemented by other challenging regulations such as the restriction on the total quantity of tyres a driver may use at any one event along with the limit on the number of engines and gearboxes that may be used throughout a championship season.

Perhaps the primary objective of these rules and regulations is an attempt to level the playing field for teams competing within the championship. Some of the larger teams (such as Ferrari and McLaren) have vast budgets to draw on whilst the smaller and newer teams do not have such extensive financial reserves. These rules will help establish some form of competitive balance in an effort to ensure that the team with the biggest chequebook does not necessarily guarantee themselves the championship.

Future Pathways for Green Vehicle Technology

Academics, researchers, politicians and other interested stakeholders have been debating the mass introduction of alternatively fuelled (AFV) and low emission vehicles (LEV) since the 1970s. Interest in alternative technologies first came about as a result of both the two oil shocks around this time (making the internal combustion engine (ICE) appear less attractive as a vehicle powertrain) and increased awareness of the environmental consequences of the current automobile culture. It can be easy to conclude that all of this work has come to naught. A quick look out the window confirms that ICE powered vehicles are still by far the dominant way we go about our personal mobility. Perhaps this is due to the relative calm in the international oil markets over the 80s, 90s and early 2000s and the ICE has come a long way to decreasing its local pollution emissions (such as particulate matter, nitrous and sulphur oxides etc.) but carbon emissions have seen a much more muted improvement.

The focus has shifted in recent years from a local pollution to an international pollution prospective. In the developed world we have mostly addressed the challenge of local pollution (by outsourcing our dirty industry to less developed countries). The next hurdle is to address the problems of anthropogenic climate change of which transport contributes over a quarter in the developed world. One thing is clear (in my view), in the medium and long term we will have to move away from a system dependent on oil to power individual ICE if we have any hope of meeting the goals we have recently set ourselves (see the UK Climate Change Bill).

The Toyota Crisis and its Ramifications for LEVs

Over the last few weeks a story has broken that has the potential to pull down the biggest automotive firm in the World. Toyota has recently admitted a technical fault in some of its vehicles that interferes with the operation of the accelerator. Some Toyota drivers have stated their vehicles accelerator pedal becoming stuck down causing the vehicle to speed out of control. A number of car accidents in the US have been attributed to this default.

The company’s response to the allegations of technical malfunctions has been somewhat sporadic and less than confident in nature. A solid position on this issue was not initially forthcoming leading some speculators to question Toyota’s crisis management abilities. Toyota has now ordered an international recall of all affected vehicles and will be working with the DVLA in the UK in order to get in touch with all drivers in the UK operating a potentially faulty vehicle. I imagine that any Toyota driver is well aware of the situation and that they will have attempted to get in touch with Toyota long before the corporate engine finally engaged in an attempt to resolve the situation.

The Potential of Low Emissions Zone and Their Impact onto Vehicle Purchasing Behaviour

The idea of zoning in geography and planning is not a new concept and has been utilised for a variety of purposes over the years. Zoning involves the application of land use regulation in order to achieve a desired output related to the activities that take place in a certain area. A zone can relate to, for example, a park/green space open area or a hospital complex, each with its own unique purpose for the designated area and usually with a set of unique regulations attached to the use of the area. In economics/business the application of zones can be seen in the business parks that now are prevalent in most of our urban areas or the export processing zones that many of our large corporations have taken advantage of in developing nations.

In regards to integrated transport, zoning is often used in urban environments to manage the demands that personal and commercial transport places onto certain areas. These areas are often selected dependent on the level of transport loading that is present, with the areas suffering from high levels of loading being earmarked for zoning and regulation. In the UK, Clear Zones have been used in the past (such as in the Quayside development of Newcastle/Gateshead) to improve public transport, decrease congestion and noise and increase public enjoyment of certain communal areas. The recent (over the last 5 to 10 years) redevelopment of many urban city centres in the UK has provided urban planners with a unique opportunity to apply the most advanced theories in the subject in order to ensure the success of the city centre for the coming years.

Government Owned Auto Firms and Their Environmental Direction

The recent economic recession has affected both consumers and producers across the world. Output in some exporting economies decreased by upwards of 40% (such as in Japan) whilst unemployment has increased in some instances beyond the 10% band (such as in the US). Large consumer goods have been affected disproportionately as consumers hedge their bets in relation to expensive purchases. This has seen sales in the automotive sector decrease substantially in the financial year 2008/09. In order to alleviate this slump national governments have intervened within the market in an attempt to boost demand. Government backed initiatives such as the scrappage scheme have allowed consumers to receive a cash deduction on the purchase of a new vehicle when trading in their old car (if that car is over 10 years old in the instance of the UK). In the UK £300m was initially allocated to this scheme and has been further extended by another £100m due to popularity.

Within the US automotive industry there is considerations for all of the concerns outlined above. Manufacturing output is a key part of the overall US economy especially in the large consumer goods section. This industry also directly employs a large proportion of the workforce (over 1 million automotive workers in 2005) and has strong indirect employment links to related sectors. This creates the situation where the industry has an important place within national policy and political consideration. Furthermore, the industry also possesses important cultural and symbolic meaning for many US citizens who see their automotive firms as champions of US economic power, ingenuity and integrity.

Reforming Fuel Duty

The Green Fiscal Commission was a policy think tank established in 2007 to investigate the case for reforming the UK taxation system to reflect a more green position. They published their final report late last year which included a host of useful policy recommendations to the UK government. These policy recommendations were closely linked to the requirement for the UK to reduce its carbon emissions in line with the target budgets outlined in the Climate Change Bill. The commission argued the case that the vast amount of these carbon reductions could be generated by reforming the taxation system to increase tax on polluting activities (public bads) whilst decreasing tax on public goods such as employment to ensure fiscal neutrality.

I enjoyed reading about their suggestions and I believe that the case they put forward is both valid and required. In order to alter consumer and industry behaviour to reflect the environmental damage these activity generates it is crucial that this damage is incorporated into the price of goods and services produced and consumed. The public and industry may state a high level of concern for the environment but in order to ensure this concern is translated into action one of the best methods is to increase the price of activities that create this environmental impact.

Road Trains

An idea that originally grabbed my attention some months ago concerned the research being undertaken by the Safe Road Trains for the Environment (SATRE – funded by the EU) which investigated the prospect of automated vehicle motorway transport. This concept involved the creation of “Road Trains” on Europe’s motorways that allowed vehicle drivers to join a convoy, manoeuvred by a lead driver, and stop manually automating their individual car and be directed by the operations of the lead driver. This would allow the convoy driver to partake in other activities such as reading or sleeping.

Road Trains are currently undergoing further research and testing but a European implementation of 2011 has been touted. The research, that has so far been conducted, highlights a number of advantages. Firstly, convoy drivers will benefit from an average 20% reduction in fuel use due to the slipstream effect often employed by professional cyclists. This will directly reduce the carbon intensity of the journey for a convoy vehicle. The first question that comes to me is will the lead driver be professionally employed to conduct this operation or simply another motorway driver who is also undertaking a long haul journey? My inclination is that it must be a professional driver and thus, keeping in mind the supposed fuel/carbon benefits, the Road Trains will have to average a convoy of at least 5 cars (if we assume the cars are comparable with fuel/carbon efficiency) to outweigh the operation of the lead vehicle.

Renault Zero Emissions Series

Following on from my previous post discussing clean technology being showcased in Copenhagen I have done some further investigation into the new range of zero emissions vehicles being developed by Renault. The Z.E series was first outlined by Renault in 2008 and will include 4 unique vehicle designs to suit different consumer needs. Consumers will be able to choose from the two seat Twizy aimed at the young urban market who require compact and affordable transport, the Kangoo aimed at the smalle business market providing a small commercial transport solution and finally the two differing saloon options the Zoe (compact) and Fluence (family).

This development by Renault shows the first real shift by any major automotive firm in Europe to produce, not just a one off, but a spectrum of zero emissions vehicles. All the vehicles in the Z.E range will be fuelled by an electric Lithium-Ion battery pack. Renault has also teamed up with Better Place to develop and implement battery exchange stations. These stations will dispel the reservations of most conventional vehicle drivers concerning the range issue of electric vehicles. An automated system will remove the depleted battery pack and substitute it with a fully charged replacement with the entire process taking a few minutes. Before this design innovation, electric vehicle batteries were recharged by an electric outlet with refuel times upwards of 8 hours.

X Prize

A theory fundamentally ingrained into current economic thought is that a highly competitive environment will produce a socially optimal outcome so long as the agents work within the governing rules of the society. An atmosphere of innovation and invention will flourish accelerating the advancement of technology and best practice. This key principle has given birth to the X Prize created to enhance the development of next generation technologies.

The first incidence of the prize (Ansari Prize) was completed in 2004 and created the first private suborbital spaceflight with a vehicle christened SpaceShipOne, with the maiden flight undertaken by Mike Melvill. A cash prize of $10 million was offered to the first successful flight with over $100 million of investment being generated by the competing entrants.

This concept has since been further developed and brought forward to commercial deployment by the British entrepreneur Sir Richard Branson with his Virgin Galactic venture. SpaceShipTwo is earmarked for its first passenger flight in 2010 with a ticket setting back the budding astronaut $200, 000 for 6 minutes of weightlessness. This illustrates a 6 year innovation and development curve from first successful trail to commercial deployment. This entire concept has been hugely successful and has subsequently been expanded to other sectors including the automotive industry.

Copenhagen LEV Outcomes

The Copenhagen Climate Conference that took place last month may have not provided me with as much of a forward looking outcome as I would have liked however, it did present an opportunity for a host of companies to demonstrate their latest technologies. The conference was as much an industry exhibition as an exercise in international political negotiations.

The link below is to a video produced by the Guardian newspaper which investigated Eco Transport at the conference. It provides a synopsis of many emerging Low Emission Vehicle technologies including internal combustion engine vehicles that utilise biofuels (in high concentrations), hybrid electric vehicles, battery electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cells. These technologies have been applied predominantly to cars though there is some footage showing motorcycle concepts were also being demonstrated.

Click here for the Eco Transport Copenhagen video.