Future Pathways for Green Vehicle Technology

Academics, researchers, politicians and other interested stakeholders have been debating the mass introduction of alternatively fuelled (AFV) and low emission vehicles (LEV) since the 1970s. Interest in alternative technologies first came about as a result of both the two oil shocks around this time (making the internal combustion engine (ICE) appear less attractive as a vehicle powertrain) and increased awareness of the environmental consequences of the current automobile culture. It can be easy to conclude that all of this work has come to naught. A quick look out the window confirms that ICE powered vehicles are still by far the dominant way we go about our personal mobility. Perhaps this is due to the relative calm in the international oil markets over the 80s, 90s and early 2000s and the ICE has come a long way to decreasing its local pollution emissions (such as particulate matter, nitrous and sulphur oxides etc.) but carbon emissions have seen a much more muted improvement.

The focus has shifted in recent years from a local pollution to an international pollution prospective. In the developed world we have mostly addressed the challenge of local pollution (by outsourcing our dirty industry to less developed countries). The next hurdle is to address the problems of anthropogenic climate change of which transport contributes over a quarter in the developed world. One thing is clear (in my view), in the medium and long term we will have to move away from a system dependent on oil to power individual ICE if we have any hope of meeting the goals we have recently set ourselves (see the UK Climate Change Bill).

5 years ago it seemed to be the case that we were on the verge of an energy revolution and the Hydrogen would provide us with clean and abundant energy. Even better, in vehicles the only chemical the engines would emit would be water (allowing for pollution to become more centralised and this easier to contain). Now it appears Hydrogen has all been but forgotten and the limelight is now on the electron powertrain touted as our saviour. Electric energy has the ability to be centrally generated (like Hydrogen) and thus the emissions can be more effectively monitored and contained (Carbon Capture and Storage for example) but it is an energy form not an energy carrier (like Hydrogen) and thus can benefit from increased efficiencies.

Both pictures below from the King Review (Professor Julia King) and SMMT 10th Sustainability Report highlight possible innovation and uptake pathways for LEVs/AFVs over the coming 40yrs. Obviously it is hard to predict what is going to happen over such a long time span (especially when we change our minds on powertrains on such a regular basis) but they do give you a basic insight into current industry thinking.



The graph published by the SMMT seems more complex and has more detail on the likely technology that is going to come on-stream in the future. What is nice to see in their analysis is the understanding that there will be crossovers between the technologies (due to vehicles often having a 10 year road life). Neither of the graphs depicts likely uptake levels – if we are going to address the coming challenges outlined above we must not just create the technology but we need to use it. In order to do this consumer buy-in is essential – they will have to want to buy the new vehicles.



It will be interesting to see whether or not these predictions for future technologies actually come to pass. It seems (at least to me) that the rollout of electric vehicles could come sooner than expected. It is getting to the stage now that the government may have to step into the market more forcibly and “pick a winner”. Which winner they pick could lock us in to a certain technology pathway that may prove suboptimal in the future. Also which companies will pioneer this green vehicle expansion is still unclear. New start-up companies like BetterPlace and Tesla have attracted $100s of millions in funding, investment and grants to further their expansions. Some of the more traditional automotive manufacturers are also beginning to flex their R&D&D muscles in the field as well. What should be made paramount is that it doesn’t matter which technology pathway is followed, nor which company(ies) come to be the face of the green automotive resolution. What is of critical importance is the movement towards a sustainable personal vehicle transport future.