It wasn’t too long ago that Gordon Brown, the then Chancellor of the Exchequer, claimed to have banished boom and bust economic business cycles leading to an environment of stable financial prosperity. What a difference a few years can make, now instead of enjoying unrivalled stability we are have to cope with a much more uncertain world where, if short term prospects seem shaky, medium and long term predictions are almost worthless. This world of uncertainty goes all the way up from the micro household level, where individuals are worried about their jobs and mortgage payments, to the macro government and international levels where fiscal restructuring and sovereign debt are major topics of debate.
Uncertainty and instability are not always bad things. Many financiers have made large profits from being able to accurately plot the fall of companies, betting on stock price decreases. It also generates a need for more advanced prediction and estimation techniques stimulating academic and professional innovation. Some companies specialize in “bad times” services such as insolvency firms, debt restructuring agencies and bankruptcy accountants. Unfortunately, for the vehicle market and most notably LEVs, uncertainty is not desired and can lead to a great deal of distress.
